Nigeria’s headline inflation drops to 15.43% as food prices surge past 20%

Nigeria’s headline consumer inflation eased for the second consecutive month in July, slowing to 15.43 percent as broader price growth moderated across non-food sectors, according to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The July consumer price index (CPI) reading represents a 0.48 percentage point reduction from the 15.91 percent recorded in June, outperforming consensus market forecasts that had projected a softer slowdown toward 15.51 percent. On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation remains significantly lower than the 24.94 percent recorded in July 2025.

However, the headline deceleration masked escalating pressures across staple items, with food inflation accelerating sharply to 20.31 percent year-on-year in July from 17.52 percent in June.

According to the NBS’ monthly breakdown, overall month-on-month headline inflation decelerated to 1.57 percent in July, down by 0.09 percentage points from the 1.66 percent posted in June.

Despite the moderation in aggregate price growth, food supply shocks continued to disproportionately strain consumer budgets. The NBS attributed the surge in food costs to substantial price increases across key kitchen staples, including rice, tomatoes, garri, fresh pepper, onions, eggs, beef, and plantain.

“The rise in food inflation was driven by changes in the average prices of crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh onions, fresh carrots, rice, water yam, fresh tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger, and plantain flour, among others,” the NBS stated in its monthly CPI report.

Regional disparity remained pronounced across the country’s six geopolitical zones. On a year-on-year basis, all-items headline inflation was highest in Adamawa (33.03%), Yobe (25.21%), and Anambra (23.99%), while Nasarawa (7.86%), Kebbi (9.12%), and Borno (9.12%) recorded the slowest rate of price growth.

Food inflation was particularly severe in Adamawa State, where food prices surged by 51.36 percent year-on-year and 17.02 percent month-on-month.

Core Inflation and Policy Outlook

Core inflation—which strips out volatile agricultural commodities and energy prices—slowed to 14.97 percent year-on-year in July. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation dropped sharply by 1.51 percentage points to 0.15 percent, reflecting stabilizing energy prices and exchange rate moderation.

Divisional contributions showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages, accommodation and restaurant services, and transport were the main drivers of headline inflation in July.

Urban headline inflation stood at 16.12 percent year-on-year, while rural inflation was reported at 13.77 percent.