Niger’s coup has implications for Nigeria, other neighbours

The removal of Niger’s President Mohamed Bazou in a coup has implications for Nigeria, ECOWAS and the wider continent.

On Wednesday, soldiers of Niger’s presidential guard said they had removed President Bazoum from power in the country’s fifth coup since 1960. Amadou Abdramane, an army colonel, announced the end of Mr Bazoum’s regime in a televised address.

“The defense and security forces… have decided to put an end to the regime of President Bazoum, due to the deteriorating security situation and bad governance,” he said.

The confirmation of the coup came hours after the soldiers detained President Bazoum and sealed off the presidential palace. Mr Abdramane also announced the country’s borders closed, suspended all democratic institutions and declared a nationwide curfew.

President Bazoum has reacted by vowing to protect the “hard-won” democratic gains in a defiant message on social media. His foreign minister Hassoumi Massoudou called on “all democrats and patriots” to make the coup fail.

The regional economic bloc ECOWAS condemned the coup and called on the “treasonous” soldiers to stop immediately and release Mr Bazoum. ECOWAS deployed Beninese President Patrice Talon to the Niger to monitor the unfolding breach.

Elsewhere in the continent and around the world, the coup has been roundly condemned and world leaders have shown solidarity to the deposed Nigerien leader. EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in a post said, “The EU condemns any attempt to destabilize democracy and threaten the stability of Niger.”

– Nothing new

Military coup and forceful take-over of governance is not new in Niger and the West Africa sub-region. After several coups in the last half century, the region has been tagged the “coup belt region” of Africa.

Wednesday’s coup is the fifth in the country since independence and the sixth in the region in three years. Mr Bazoum’s election was the first democratic transition of power since independence from France in 1960.

So, what are the implications of the coup in Niger for Nigeria, ECOWAS and the wider African continent?

– Stability

Niger is regarded as one of the most unstable nations in the world. Mr Bazoum’s election was the first democratic transition of power since independence from France in 1960.

An attempted coup was foiled in March 2021, days before Mr Bazoum was due to be sworn into office. At that time, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and then ECOWAS chairperson, described the attempted coup as “utterly naïve, despicable, and unacceptable”.

Such a cycle does not seem like a natural environment for a fruitful thrive, growth and consolidation of democratic norms including citizen rights to choose their leaders through an election, free speech and even a trust of the governing process.

With the forceful take-over of government, the democratic cycle is broken, and the free selection of leaders is halted and protest, violence and the force of martial law may be the norm in the coming days.

– Security

A military takeover in Niger is likely going to complicate efforts to help countries in the Sahel region fight a deadly jihadist insurgency that has spread from Mauritania to Mali to Burkina Faso over the past decade.

Mali and Burkina, two other countries bordering Niger have experienced coups triggered by jihadist uprisings in recent years.

Currently, Niger is grappling with two Islamist insurgencies – one in the south-west, which swept in from Mali in 2015, and the other in the south-east, involving jihadists based in north-eastern Nigeria.

Militant groups operating in the country are believed to be allied to both al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

An unstable Niger that is isolated by both regional neighbours and other international security partners may derail security cooperation to stem the thriving insurgency in the region and effectively compromise security efforts and structures in the region.

Since forcefully taking power, the military leaders of Mali and Burkina Faso have fallen out with France, the former colonial power in both countries, and are also isolated by their neighbours.

By contrast, President Bazoum, who was democratically elected in 2021, has maintained close cooperation with France, and other Western nations.

According to Reuters, the United States says it has spent around $500 million since 2012 to help Niger boost its security. Also, Germany announced in April that it would take part in a three-year European military mission aimed at improving the country’s military.

“Bazoum has been the West’s only hope in the Sahel region. France, the U.S. and the EU have spent much of their resources in the region to bolster Niger and its security forces,” Ulf Laessing had said. All of that effort may now rest on a delicate balance of uncertainty.

In a sub-region touted to be a hotbed for Islamic insurgency, an unstable and isolated Niger may complicate that notoriety and the spread of the tentacle of insurgency may naturally take advantage.

As a ranking poor country with a very high poverty rating, Niger still relies on economic assistance and handouts both to feed its people and stabilize its systems. Therefore, any tilt of that aid balance may further expose Nigeriens to the ills of poverty.

– Malign the West, Embrace Russia

There is a growing concern of Russia’s budding influence on the African continent. On Thursday, at St. Petersburg in Russia, the Russia-Africa Summit was flagged off. Analysts fear the putsch in Niger may misalign the country against the West and expose the country to Russia’s influence and diplomatic incursion in the region and the African continent.

This in itself also has implications. An isolated Niger from the ECOWAS and AU flanks is an open invitation for Russia’s comfort and influence.

Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program for Germany’s Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung think-tank has said that a coup would create an opportunity for Russia and other actors to spread their influence in Niger.

For instance, Mali’s misalignment with the West has led to Russia’s incursion into the region as epitomized by the presence of Wagner mercenaries in the country. The ruling junta in Mali relies on Wagner’s men to stem the spread of jihadist forces in the country and there are reports the country receives a special shipment of Russian grain.

Last year, France evacuated its troops from Mali to Niger after its relations with interim authorities there soured. It is also withdrawing special forces from Burkina Faso due to similar tensions. Those grounds may be filled by Russian mercenaries in the coming months.

With Wagner forces in Central African Republic (CAR), Libya and, briefly, northern Mozambique, Niger could be next on the list.