Iran war may push 32 million into poverty with Africa among hardest hit

The economic fallout from the ongoing Iran war could push more than 32 million people into poverty globally, with countries in Africa among those most at risk, according to a new report released by the United Nations Development Programme.

The report warns that the conflict, now in its sixth week, is triggering a “triple shock” of rising energy prices, higher food costs, and slowing economic growth, reversing development gains in many vulnerable economies.

While the immediate impact is concentrated in the Middle East, the broader effects are spreading rapidly across 162 countries, particularly those that rely heavily on imported fuel and food.

Sub-Saharan Africa is flagged as one of the most exposed regions.

“War is development in reverse. Conflict can undo in weeks what countries have built over years,” said UNDP Administrator and UN Under-Secretary-General Alexander De Croo, adding that the crisis is already pushing millions, especially in poorer countries, back into hardship.

The surge in global energy prices has been a key driver of the crisis. Oil markets have been disrupted since the conflict escalated, with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz – a critical global shipping route – affecting the flow of crude, gas, and other commodities.

As global crude prices rise, domestic fuel costs follow, driving up transport, electricity, and food prices.

In Nigeria, petrol prices were already high before the latest escalation, selling at about $0.92 per litre (₦1,295) in Abuja—far above pre-war levels of roughly $0.57 (₦800). With global oil prices climbing again, analysts expect further increases, adding pressure to households already struggling with inflation.

Beyond fuel, the report highlights growing risks to food security.

Higher energy costs are pushing up fertiliser prices and disrupting global supply chains, raising fears of what experts describe as a looming “food security time bomb” for developing regions. Many African countries, already facing climate and economic pressures, could see worsening hunger and rising poverty levels.

Even if a ceasefire holds, the damage may be long-lasting.

The UNDP warns that the crisis is shifting from an “acute” phase to an “enduring” one, meaning the economic effects could persist well beyond the immediate conflict. Under the worst-case scenario—where disruptions to energy markets continue for months—up to 32 million additional people could fall below the global poverty line of about $8.30 per day.

About half of that increase is expected to occur in energy-importing countries across Africa, Asia, and other developing regions.

Unlike wealthier nations, many African governments have limited fiscal capacity to cushion the impact through subsidies or social spending. Rising debt levels and shrinking external aid flows are further constraining their ability to respond.

The report notes that recent cuts in global development assistance could worsen the situation, reducing support just as vulnerable countries face growing economic shocks.

To mitigate the impact, the UNDP is calling for targeted policy responses, including temporary cash transfers to protect the poorest households. It estimates that up to $6 billion would be needed globally to offset the immediate effects on those most at risk.

Other measures include targeted subsidies or vouchers for essential energy needs such as electricity and cooking gas. However, the agency cautions against broad, untargeted subsidies, which tend to benefit wealthier households and are difficult to sustain financially.