Subsidy windfall: Abia records biggest gain and biggest jump in social spending

No state gained more in percentage growth from the subsidy windfall than Abia, and no state increased its spending faster, according to the World Bank.

Abia’s federation transfers rose by 200 percent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, the largest increase in the country, the Bank said in its Nigeria Development Update, released last week. Cross River (190 percent) and Imo (184 percent) followed. At the bottom were Ondo (38 percent), Bayelsa (27 percent) and Nasarawa (23 percent).

Abia spent even faster than its revenue grew. A chart in the report shows its spending rose by about 463 percent in real terms over the period, against revenue growth of about 198 percent. That is the widest gap of the 34 states analysed. The Bank listed Abia first among the states where spending growth far outpaced revenue growth.

Unlike several states that put almost all their extra money into roads, Abia also spent heavily on people. Its real per capita spending on education, health and social protection rose by about 900 percent between 2022 and 2025, the largest increase in the country. Anambra was next among states with better human-development scores, at about 400 percent. Lagos and Cross River recorded some of the smallest increases.

Abia’s infrastructure spending grew too, and faster. The ratio of its infrastructure spending to its social spending rose from about 0.3 in 2022 to about 2.2 in 2025. Its transport spending went almost entirely to roads.

Abia also raised more of its own money. Its internally generated revenue grew by about 195 percent in real terms, the second-fastest rise after Enugu. Its debt-to-GDP ratio fell from about 5.1 percent in 2021 to about 4.1 percent in 2025.

Abia still depends heavily on Abuja: about 83 percent of its 2025 revenue came from federation transfers.

Abia’s growth rates start from a low base, so large percentages can reflect modest amounts in naira. The Bank’s figures do not show how the gap between spending and revenue was financed, or how much of the new spending went into completed projects.

Abia has been governed since May 2023 by Alex Otti, whose administration has promoted road reconstruction in Aba and Umuahia as its signature programme. The Bank’s analysis covers exactly this period.

The Bank’s general warning applies to Abia as much as to any state. It said the payoff from higher capital spending “will depend on project selection, execution, and maintenance”. It also said spending reviews should examine why states with similar spending levels “achieve different outcomes”.

Questions for Abia: how did it finance spending growth more than twice its revenue growth, and what has the 900 percent rise in social spending delivered in schools and clinics?

Editor’s Note:

Since President Bola Tinubu ended the petrol subsidy in May 2023 and the naira was floated, Nigerians have paid a heavy price. Petrol now sells for over N1,400 a litre, and N1,350 at NNPC stations even after last week’s “discount”. Food prices have doubled and doubled again, and the minimum wage is still N70,000.

The same reforms gave every tier of government more money than it has had in years. According to the World Bank, federation revenue rose 69 percent in real terms between 2023 and 2025. The federal government’s share grew by 41 percent and the states’ share by 130 percent. Where did the money go?

Starting Monday (October 12, 2026), Pluboard has run a series of reports answering that question. They draw on the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update, released last week. Its findings are built from the budget implementation reports of 34 states for 2021 to 2025, together with federal accounts and Federation Account Allocation Committee data. It appears to be the most comprehensive record yet of how Nigeria’s governments have raised and spent public money since the subsidy ended.

We are publishing how the federal government spent its share, what happened to the subsidy savings, which states built roads but not schools or clinics, which spent beyond their means or borrowed more despite the windfall, and which states did best, and which did worst. We will name the states and set out the figures.