Subsidy windfall: Kaduna only state where social spending per head stalled

Kaduna State increased its spending far faster than its revenue after the petrol subsidy ended, roughly doubled its debt burden, and was the only state in Nigeria where real social spending per person did not rise, according to the World Bank.

The findings are in the Bank’s Nigeria Development Update, released last week. It analyses the budget implementation reports of 34 states for 2021 to 2025.

Between 2023 and 2025, Kaduna’s revenue grew by about 55 percent in real terms, according to a chart in the report. Its spending grew by about 388 percent. The Bank named Kaduna, with Abia, Benue and Gombe, as one of the states with “particularly large gaps” between spending and revenue growth. Across all states, median spending growth was 134 percent against median revenue growth of 79 percent.

Little of that spending appears to have gone to people. The Bank found that real per capita spending on education, health and social protection “rose between 2022 and 2025 in all but one state”. Its chart shows that state is Kaduna, the only one among the 34 with no recorded increase. Kano, also in the North-West, raised social spending per head by more than 350 percent over the same period.

Kaduna’s debt also rose. Its debt-to-GDP ratio went from about 3.6 percent in 2021 to about 7.3 percent in 2025, the highest of any state in the Bank’s chart. At the same time, 21 states, including neighbouring Zamfara, cut their ratios.

The pressure has carried into 2026. The Bank listed Kaduna, with Plateau and Bauchi, among the states with “the largest deficits” in the first half of this year. Across all states, the combined surplus widened to N2.2 trillion.

Kaduna’s spending also tilted towards infrastructure. The ratio of its infrastructure spending to its social spending roughly doubled between 2022 and 2025, from about 0.7 to about 1.5.

The state also depends heavily on Abuja. About three-quarters of its 2025 revenue came from federation transfers. Like every state except Lagos and Enugu, its own tax revenue did not cover its running costs.

Kaduna has been governed since May 2023 by Uba Sani, who succeeded Nasir El-Rufai. Some of the state’s debt predates his tenure, but the period of fastest spending growth in the Bank’s analysis, 2023 to 2025, falls under his administration.

The Bank did not single out Kaduna’s projects for criticism. But it warned that in many states “major projects are often included in state budgets without systematic appraisal, credible costing, transparent selection criteria, or clear evidence of affordability”, and that monitoring “often focuses on financial inputs rather than physical progress and service outcomes”.

Editor’s Note:

Since President Bola Tinubu ended the petrol subsidy in May 2023 and the naira was floated, Nigerians have paid a heavy price. Petrol now sells for over N1,400 a litre, and N1,350 at NNPC stations even after last week’s “discount”. Food prices have doubled and doubled again, and the minimum wage is still N70,000.

The same reforms gave every tier of government more money than it has had in years. According to the World Bank, federation revenue rose 69 percent in real terms between 2023 and 2025. The federal government’s share grew by 41 percent and the states’ share by 130 percent. Where did the money go?

Starting Monday (October 12, 2026), Pluboard has run a series of reports answering that question. They draw on the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update, released last week. Its findings are built from the budget implementation reports of 34 states for 2021 to 2025, together with federal accounts and Federation Account Allocation Committee data. It appears to be the most comprehensive record yet of how Nigeria’s governments have raised and spent public money since the subsidy ended.

We are publishing how the federal government spent its share, what happened to the subsidy savings, which states built roads but not schools or clinics, which spent beyond their means or borrowed more despite the windfall, and which states did best, and which did worst. We will name the states and set out the figures.