Middle East crisis hits Nigeria: Petrol prices surge to N1,450 per litre

Escalating military conflicts in the Middle East have triggered an immediate domestic fallout across Nigeria, sending petrol pump prices surging to N1,450 per litre in Abuja and N1,400 in Lagos.

The fresh spike follows a sharp rally in global benchmark crude prices, driven by renewed Houthi missile strikes on Saudi energy facilities, Iranian maritime actions near the Strait of Hormuz, and more recently, the abrupt postponement of critical regional diplomacy in Oman aimed at securing the strategic waterway.

As global crude futures jumped over three percent in early Monday trading, the economic ripple effects immediately hit Nigerian forecourts, where fuel marketers adjusted prices upwards to reflect mounting import costs and higher ex-depot tariffs.

The market reaction highlights Nigeria’s acute vulnerability to external energy shocks despite its status as a major crude producer.

The primary catalyst is a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, which has forced domestic refiners—including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery—and private importers to adjust their ex-depot pricing upwards.

“The reality is that local refinery gate prices are benchmarked against international crude prices and freight tariffs,” explained Clement Isong, Executive Secretary of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN). “When global crude spikes because of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the cost of feedstock and maritime insurance goes up automatically. Refiners and marketers have no buffer but to pass those costs down the supply chain.”

In Abuja, independent filling stations raised prices since weekend from around N1,350 to between N1,395 and N1,450 per litre. In Lagos, pump prices moved from N1,300 to between N1,380 and N1,400 per litre, sparking immediate queues and transport fare hikes across major commercial corridors.

The global rally was fueled by weekend security developments in the Persian Gulf. Houthi forces launched fresh attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure, while international shipping talks in Muscat aimed at de-escalating naval threats around the Strait of Hormuz were indefinitely postponed.

With nearly a fifth of world oil consumption passing through the narrow choke-point, energy analysts had warn that prolonged instability could push global crude beyond $100 a barrel.

Energy market analysts emphasize that while higher crude prices traditionally bolster government revenues for oil-exporting nations, Nigeria’s fiscal setup limits the benefits for ordinary citizens.

“For Nigeria, a crude price rally is a double-edged sword,” said Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). “While the federal government sees higher dollar revenues, the citizen at the pump suffers immediately through higher transport costs and accelerated food inflation. Because our domestic refining relies on international crude benchmarks, there is no insulation from a Persian Gulf crisis.”

For millions of Nigerians already struggling under high inflation, the sudden price jump threatens to trigger another wave of transport fare increases and operational costs for small businesses reliant on petrol generators.