139 million Nigerians now live below poverty line despite reforms – World Bank

More than 139 million Nigerians — over six in every ten citizens — are living below the national poverty line, the World Bank has said, in a stark assessment accompanying its newly approved development strategy for Africa’s most populous country.

The finding is contained in the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria, 2026–2032, and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic, which were endorsed on 29 June 2026 alongside a $1.25 billion financing package known as the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration (NAIJA) program.

According to the diagnostic report, poverty in Nigeria is not only widespread but layered:

“Thirty-three per cent of its population is ultra-poor (food insecure by age-weighted caloric intake), 61 per cent is below the poverty line, and 79 per cent is near poor (below the poverty line or vulnerable to falling back into poverty).”

In practical terms, this means roughly one in three Nigerians cannot reliably meet minimum food needs, while nearly eight in ten are either poor or one shock away from becoming poor.

In June, the IMF warned that millions of Nigerians continue to face severe hardship as poverty and food insecurity remain widespread.

A Sharp Rise Since 2019

The Bank’s review of its outgoing 2021–2025 partnership with Nigeria shows how quickly the numbers have moved. Poverty climbed from about 40% of the population — roughly 81 million people — in 2019, to 61%, or 139 million people, by 2025. The Bank attributed much of that increase to the Covid-19 pandemic, high inflation, fuel subsidy costs, exchange rate distortions and worsening insecurity, even as it acknowledged that its own support programs had only partially cushioned the blow.

The document does not spare the current administration’s reform record from scrutiny, even as it credits it with stabilizing the macroeconomy:

“Despite recent bold reforms stabilizing the economy and laying the groundwork for the Renewed Hope Agenda, significant structural challenges remain.”

Since May 2023, President Bola Tinubu’s government has removed the petrol subsidy, unified and liberalized the naira exchange rate, and tightened monetary policy. The Bank credits these steps with lifting growth and rebuilding foreign reserves, which it says have climbed above $42 billion. But it is equally direct about the cost to ordinary households, noting elsewhere in the report that inflation “continues to erode real incomes, particularly for the poor,” while social protection efforts “have been slow and uneven in their rollout.”

Jobs, Electricity and the Youth Bulge

Beyond income poverty, the report paints a picture of a population underserved by basic infrastructure and opportunity. More than 86 million Nigerians live without access to electricity, it says, while three to four million young people enter the labor market each year with limited prospects of formal employment.

One in four Nigerian youths, the bank notes, is neither employed nor in education or training. Over the next decade, an estimated 60 million more young Nigerians are expected to enter the workforce.

Public investment in cushioning the poor remains thin. The report states that social protection spending amounted to just 0.14% of GDP in 2021, and that only 8.5% of poor Nigerians are covered by any form of safety net — despite a World Bank-backed national cash transfer program that has so far reached about 8.1 million households with at least one payment.

Bank officials framed the new six-year framework as a shift from stabilization to inclusion, built around private-sector job creation rather than reform alone.

“Our new Country Partnership Framework provides the strategy for how the World Bank Group will support Nigeria over the coming years, with a strong focus on helping to create more and better jobs, particularly by enabling private sector-led growth,” said Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria.

“The recent macroeconomic gains have been critical to help stabilize the economy. Translating improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards will require addressing the structural constraints to spur private sector investment and job creation.”

Dahlia Khalifa, IFC Divisional Director for Nigeria, said the strategy was designed to convert reform momentum into tangible gains: “Through this Country Partnership Framework, the World Bank Group will work alongside with Nigeria to help unlock private investment, expand access to infrastructure and essential services, and create the enabling conditions for businesses to innovate and compete.”

Under the framework, the Bank says it will work toward expanding electricity access to 32 million Nigerians, delivering broadband to 58 million people, improving health and nutrition services for 40 million people, and supporting 9.5 million farmers with better inputs and productivity. It also proposes building a more unified social protection system — drawing on models from Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia and India — with a target of extending coverage to about 41 million beneficiaries.