Lake Chad Basin at tipping point as attacks, displacement surge, UN warns

The United Nations refugee agency has warned that escalating violence across the Lake Chad Basin is pushing the region toward a humanitarian tipping point, with rising attacks, mass displacement and worsening insecurity threatening years of fragile recovery.

In a statement on Friday, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) said more than 3.5 million people are now forcibly displaced across the Lake Chad Basin, which spans parts of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, while 8.2 million people require humanitarian assistance.

The agency said insecurity has deteriorated sharply, with recorded security incidents increasing by 80 per cent between January 2024 and April 2026.

Between September 2025 and May 2026, nearly 1,800 security incidents and more than 5,700 deaths were recorded across the region. The incidents included attacks on civilians, kidnappings, killings, village raids, bomb explosions and clashes involving armed groups.

UNHCR identified Borno State in northeast Nigeria as the epicentre of the crisis, where repeated attacks by non-state armed groups, military operations and insecurity along transport routes continue to uproot communities and restrict humanitarian access.

The agency warned that the effects of the conflict are spreading beyond Nigeria’s northeast into the northwest and the Middle Belt, intensifying displacement and competition over already scarce resources.

Since January 2026, more than 77,500 people have been newly displaced across the four countries, including over 16,000 Nigerians who fled attacks in northeast Nigeria into Niger’s Diffa region, where UNHCR and its partners are providing emergency assistance and registering new arrivals.

The refugee agency said violence is increasingly spilling across national borders, with attacks in one country triggering displacement in neighbouring states.

In Cameroon’s Far North region, persistent attacks, abductions and village raids continue to force people from their homes. In Chad’s Lac Province, repeated attacks and military operations have displaced about 60,000 people, prompting authorities to declare a state of emergency in May following an attack on military installations.

According to UNHCR, civilians continue to bear the greatest burden of the conflict. Recent protection monitoring found that one in five households no longer feels safe in its own community.

Women and girls face growing risks of gender-based violence, while support services remain critically overstretched. The agency said the proportion of people reporting knowledge of survivors of violence rose to 27 per cent in 2026 from 19 per cent the previous year, suggesting deteriorating protection conditions despite widespread underreporting.

Children are also increasingly vulnerable. Around half of children in the worst-affected areas are out of school, rising to more than 78 per cent in Chad’s Lac Province. One in four respondents also reported the presence of separated or unaccompanied children in their communities, increasing to one in three in Cameroon’s Far North.

Despite the worsening crisis, UNHCR commended governments across the region for continuing to keep their borders open to people fleeing violence and for supporting displaced communities.

The agency said it is working with authorities across the four countries to provide protection, humanitarian assistance, documentation and support for voluntary return and reintegration where conditions permit.

However, UNHCR warned that humanitarian resources are failing to keep pace with growing needs and appealed for $29 million to sustain operations through December 2026.

“Without timely and flexible support, protection gaps will widen, displacement will continue to spread across borders, and the risk of a more entrenched regional crisis will increase,” said Andrew Wyllie, UNHCR Deputy Director for the West and Central Africa Bureau.

He added that while the situation remains deeply concerning, it can still be reversed with sustained international support.