Economist cited by Trump to defend tariffs says U.S. govt got math “very wrong”

A leading economist whose research was used by the Trump administration to justify sweeping new tariffs has sharply criticized the policy, saying the White House “got it very wrong.”

Brett Neiman, a University of Chicago economics professor and former Biden-era Treasury official, said the tariff calculations released by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) misinterpreted the findings of a research paper he co-authored.

That paper had been cited by the USTR to support its recent decision to impose broad tariffs of at least 10% on nearly all countries exporting to the United States — and as high as 50% on select economies.

Writing in an op-ed for The New York Times, Neiman argued that the tariffs were not only miscalculated but also based on flawed assumptions. “Even taking it at face value, our findings suggest the calculated tariffs should be dramatically smaller — perhaps one-fourth as large,” he wrote. “I disagree fundamentally with the government’s trade policy and approach.”

According to Neiman, the USTR’s premise that tariffs should be set to eliminate the U.S. trade deficit is economically unsound. “Trade imbalances between two countries can emerge for many reasons that have nothing to do with protectionism,” he said, pointing to the U.S.-Sri Lanka trade relationship as an example of how differences in development and consumer behavior—not unfair trade practices—drive deficits.

Beyond the conceptual flaws, Neiman criticized the USTR’s tariff formula itself. While his research estimated that U.S. importers typically absorb 95% of tariff costs — implying nearly full price increases — the administration assumed a pass-through rate of just 25%.

“Where does 25 percent come from? Is it related to our work? I don’t know,” he said. “The reciprocal tariffs have enormous implications for workers, firms, consumers and stock markets around the globe. But the methodology note offers shockingly few details.”

Markets reacted nervously to the tariffs, with a selloff on Monday and calls from prominent business leaders like billionaire investor Bill Ackman for a policy rethink. Trump, however, dismissed concerns, insisting the economic “medicine” was necessary.

Neiman concluded that the tariff policy should be scrapped altogether. But short of that, he advised the administration to “divide its results by four.”