High prices force Nigerians to cut petrol use by 14% as supply rises

Nigeria had substantially more petrol available in August than in July, but consumed markedly less of it, according to the latest factsheet released on Thursday by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The data highlights a clear divergence between expanding domestic production and dwindling consumer affordability across the country.

Total Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) receipts — representing all fuel entering the domestic supply chain — grew 11 per cent in August to 50.5 million litres per day, up from 45.5 million litres daily in July.

The expansion in available fuel was driven principally by local refiners. Receipts from domestic facilities, dominated by the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, jumped 39 per cent to 35.9 million litres per day. Domestic supply accounted for 71 per cent of total national petrol receipts in August.

Concurrently, daily petrol imports fell 26 per cent to 14.6 million litres, down from 19.7 million litres in July, as local output displaced foreign cargoes.

Despite the increase in total market availability, recorded daily consumption — measured by the volume trucked out to retail outlets — dropped 14 per cent to 41.5 million litres per day in August, compared to 48.3 million litres per day in July. The figure falls significantly short of the 50 million litres per day benchmark historically cited by government officials as national daily demand.

“PMS daily receipts increased by 11 per cent, rising from 45.5 million litres per day in July to 50.5 million litres per day in August,” the NMDPRA stated in its official factsheet. “Domestic PMS receipts rose by 39 per cent… Over the same period, PMS imports declined by 26 per cent. PMS consumption declined by 14 per cent, from 48.3 million litres per day in July to 41.5 million litres per day in August.”

Price pressures shrink consumer demand

Industry operations point to escalating prices as the primary factor curbing demand. The ex-depot price for petrol at the Dangote refinery gantry climbed through late August and into September, rising from roughly N1,165 per litre to N1,265 per litre within a single week, with corresponding increases transmitted to filling station pumps nationwide.

In a country heavily reliant on petrol for commercial transport, small business logistics, and off-grid generator power, rising retail costs forced immediate changes in consumption habits.

The decline aligns with broader macroeconomic pressures facing households through 2026. Although headline inflation has shown signs of moderation, core transport and food prices remain elevated, squeezing disposable incomes and forcing motorists to reduce non-essential trips and optimize travel routes.

The figures indicate that the demand decline stems from affordability constraints rather than market scarcity. National petrol stock sufficiency — measuring the number of days current inventories can satisfy demand — edged up from 22.4 days in July to 22.9 days in August.

The regulator’s data confirmed that the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna recorded no output during the month, leaving domestic production heavily reliant on private refiners and modular facilities.

With domestic supply rising and stock buffers remaining stable, market analysts note that consumer purchasing power — rather than fuel availability — has become the central constraint shaping Nigeria’s energy demand landscape.