Global oil prices extended gains on Monday as escalating maritime exchanges between the United States and Iran in the strategic Strait of Hormuz stoked market anxieties over a prolonged disruption to Middle East crude supplies.
According to Reuters report, international benchmark Brent crude futures jumped by more than $1.00 to trade near $97.50 a barrel, building on a dramatic weekly surge of nearly 8%. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude similarly advanced above $92.00 a barrel after rallying roughly 10% during the previous week’s trading.
The market reaction follows direct military action over the weekend aimed at commercial shipping infrastructure along the world’s most crucial oil transit corridor, through which approximately one-fifth of global petroleum supplies traditionally move.
Tensions erupted into direct confrontation on Saturday when US forces launched strikes against three Iranian oil tankers, including a target situated off Kharg Island—a vital installation for Iran’s domestic petroleum export network.
In response, the naval arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for targeting three oil tankers passing through what it termed unauthorized channels in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside additional strikes directed at three US vessels elsewhere in the region.
The physical impact on regional trade flows is becoming increasingly pronounced. According to the reports, data from marine analytics firm Kpler revealed that an average of just 10 commodity vessels per day transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past ten days—marking the lowest shipping density observed in the choke-point since May.
Tehran has signaled that further maritime restrictions are imminent.
“A restricted zone will be announced outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days,” Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated via state media channels on Sunday.
Industry risk analysts warn that targeting commercial traffic reflects a dangerous shift in regional naval conflict dynamics, treating merchant fleets as tools of geopolitical leverage.
“Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping,” maritime intelligence firm Marisks observed in a client advisory.
With physical vessel traffic slowing, market strategists caution that commodity traders are beginning to factor in an extended period of constrained supply.
“If tanker traffic begins to slow materially, the market could price in a much larger supply shock. And there are already signs that this is happening,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, Head of Market Insights at Phillip Nova.
Investment banks have adjusted their forward price trajectories to reflect the rising risk premium in energy markets. Analysts at ANZ Bank noted that a prolonged standoff marked by calibrated military exchanges represents the most probable medium-term outcome, delaying any immediate recovery in Middle East supply routes.
“We then expect exports to remain constrained through the rest of 2026, before a gradual reopening late in the fourth quarter of 2026,” ANZ analysts wrote, adding that a return to pre-conflict shipping volumes is unlikely before the first half of 2027.
Meanwhile, major oil producers are maintaining a cautious stance. During a scheduled policy meeting on Sunday, the OPEC+ alliance elected to leave its operational output targets unchanged for October, indicating that the group must agree on formal revised production quotas before modifying its broader supply strategy.
In Nigeria, the international volatility is translating directly into domestic agony. The 700,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, situated locally in Lagos, still imports a portion of its crude feedstock, leaving its pricing heavily exposed to international freight rates and global crude benchmarks.
In response to the surging global market, the refinery recently adjusted its gantry price of petrol by ₦65, taking it from ₦1,200 to ₦1,265 per litre. This marked the refinery’s third price increase in a single week—cumulatively raising the price by ₦100 per litre, or an 8.6% jump, from its mid-August rate of ₦1,165.
The refinery also aggressively repriced its coastal rates from ₦1,582,380 to ₦1,669,545 per metric tonne, officially directing marketers to return all existing “Authorisations to Collect” (ATCs) for immediate repricing.
The rapid adjustments have left independent petroleum marketers struggling to structure their operations, warning that retail pump prices could easily breach the ₦1,400 mark in the coming days.
Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) last week warned that the frequent changes and ongoing geopolitical tensions—specifically citing the prolonged uncertainty surrounding the US and Iran—are making business planning impossible.
“Marketers are being affected by a combination of international market conditions, government policies, and exchange-rate movements,” explained Ukadike.
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