VIEWPOINT: Is the opposition Nigerians want still possible?

Nigeria’s opposition politics is once again at the brink of collapse under the crushing weight of ambition, ego and the perennial inability of political elites to subordinate personal dreams to national urgency. What many Nigerians hoped would become the most formidable coalition against the ruling All Progressives Congress ahead of the 2027 general election now appears splintered even before the battle properly begins.

For months, there had been growing excitement among citizens battered by inflation, unemployment, insecurity and declining living standards that an opposition alliance could finally emerge strong enough to challenge the entrenched machinery of President Bola Tinubu and the APC government. Across markets, campuses, urban centres and even rural communities, ordinary Nigerians projected their frustrations onto the possibility of a united opposition front comprising Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi and other influential figures across the North-South divide.

To many Nigerians, such a coalition represented more than electoral arithmetic. It symbolised perhaps the only realistic pathway to dislodging a ruling establishment that has presided over one of the harshest economic eras in decades.

The mood in the country is unmistakably tense. Food inflation has devastated household incomes. The removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira triggered painful increases in transportation, electricity and basic living costs. The middle class is shrinking rapidly while millions of poor Nigerians are sinking deeper into desperation. Across the country, citizens increasingly feel abandoned by political leaders who appear insulated from the suffering around them.

Against this backdrop, the idea of a united opposition became a psychological refuge for frustrated Nigerians. Citizens were not merely searching for another politician. They were searching for relief, competence, accountability and hope.

Yet, as has repeatedly happened in Nigerian political history, personal ambition appears to have triumphed over collective strategy.

Days ago, Atiku Abubakar and former governor Rotimi Amaechi confirmed the purchase of the ADC presidential primaries form while Peter Obi and Kwankwaso scrambled to pitch a popular structure with the NDC. These political hefts are clearly unable to forge a formidable consensus and rather pursue self-glory.

The seeming collapse of the opposition coalition underscores a painful reality: Nigerian politicians still largely play a self-centered game where personal aspiration transcends national interest. At the centre of the fracture lies Atiku Abubakar’s refusal to step aside from another presidential contest.

For many Nigerians, Atiku’s insistence on contesting again is deeply disappointing. His supporters argue that democracy guarantees every citizen the constitutional right to aspire to office. That is true. But politics is not merely about legal rights; it is also about timing, sacrifice, strategy and historical responsibility.

There comes a point in a nation’s democratic journey when statesmanship demands restraint.

Atiku’s camp reportedly argues that the South has had more uninterrupted years in office in recent time and that the North deserves another opportunity before the completion of what many see as the South’s expected eight-year cycle. But that argument struggles under historical scrutiny. Since independence, Northern Nigeria has held presidential power for significantly longer periods than the South. More importantly, Nigerians battling economic hardship are increasingly less concerned about regional entitlement and more concerned about survival.

Citizens want results, not zoning arithmetic.

The tragedy of the moment is that many Nigerians viewed the coalition as the only potent electoral force capable of matching the APC’s nationwide structure and incumbency advantage. A united opposition ticket pairing Obi’s urban youth appeal, Kwankwaso’s Northern grassroots strength and Atiku’s political network would have presented a formidable challenge at the polls.

Instead, the opposition appears headed toward fragmentation.

Obi’s withdrawal from the arrangement is particularly symbolic. His political identity has largely been built around prudence, moral restraint and a refusal to openly embrace the transactional culture that dominates Nigerian politics. His famous “no shishi” posture endeared him to many young Nigerians exhausted by vote-buying and political corruption. But that same moral positioning may also have become a political handicap within the brutal reality of Nigerian party structures where delegate influence, patronage and money politics still determine outcomes.

Obi likely understands that he cannot outspend or outmaneuver veteran establishment politicians in a traditional primary contest. Atiku, on the other hand, is deeply experienced in Nigeria’s political machinery and remains one of the most formidable operators in elite consensus building. Obi’s departure therefore appears less like surrender and more like an acknowledgment of political reality.

Still, the broader consequence may be devastating for opposition hopes.

History offers several warnings. In 2023, opposition votes were fragmented between Obi, Atiku and Kwankwaso, ultimately paving the way for Tinubu’s victory – that is per official results declared by INEC. The APC benefited not necessarily because it commanded overwhelming national affection, but because the opposition failed to consolidate. The same pattern may now repeat itself in 2027.

Ironically, the coalition was supposed to correct exactly that mistake. Now, with multiple opposition tendencies pulling apart again, the APC stands to benefit from divided challengers while presenting itself as the only stable national structure. In electoral politics, incumbency combined with opposition disunity is often enough to secure victory.

That is why many Nigerians increasingly see Atiku’s continued insistence on running not merely as personal ambition, but as an inadvertent gift to the ruling party. Whether intentionally or not, his decision risks splitting anti-APC votes once again and weakening the possibility of meaningful political change.

The deeper problem, however, goes beyond personalities. Nigeria does not merely need a change of faces in Aso Rock. The country needs a transformation in political thinking itself: leadership anchored on competence, accountability, institutional reform and empathy for ordinary citizens.

What Nigerians desperately seek is not another elite power rotation arrangement disguised as democracy. They seek trustworthy leadership capable of rebuilding public confidence in governance.

A selfless political kingmaker often earns a more dignified place in history than the perpetual candidate who cannot let go. Nelson Mandela became immortal not because he ruled forever, but because he understood when personal ambition must yield to national healing. Mature democracies are built not only by those who contest power, but also by those willing to sacrifice power for stability and progress.

Unfortunately, Nigerian politics still rewards stubborn ambition more than strategic sacrifice. If the opposition remains fractured heading into 2027, the likely outcome is increasingly predictable: a weakened challenge against an incumbent administration that, despite widespread public dissatisfaction, may yet coast to re-election simply because its opponents could not unite behind a single compelling alternative.

And for millions of Nigerians struggling daily with hunger, insecurity and hopelessness, that may become the cruellest consequence of all.