World Bank quietly deletes Nigeria fuel import advice after Dangote backlash

The World Bank has quietly removed a controversial policy recommendation that urged Nigeria to restart petrol imports, following sharp criticism from Dangote Industries, whose refinery now dominates domestic fuel supply.

The April report, since taken down from the Bank’s website, had recommended allowing qualified marketers to resume imports of petrol, arguing that the halt in import licences since early 2026 had reduced competition and pushed prices above import-parity levels.

Dangote Industries rejected the recommendation as flawed, warning it could undermine fuel quality, weaken domestic refining, and reverse gains in energy security. “When you are going to make a policy recommendation in one sentence, you need to be very careful the language you use,” said Mahmud Hassan, the company’s chief economist, according to The Africa Report.

Following the backlash, the Bank issued a more cautious note. While still backing competition in principle, it said any move towards a competitive retail fuel market should be “well sequenced” and must safeguard product standards and supply stability. It did not explain why the original document was withdrawn.

In its original Nigeria Development Update, the Bank linked fuel pricing to global oil shocks, warning that rising crude prices—driven partly by Middle East tensions—could fuel inflation. It estimated that oil at around $80 per barrel could add roughly 3.1 percentage points to headline inflation under full pass-through.

Within that analysis, however, was a politically sensitive claim: that limited competition had allowed petrol prices to exceed import-parity benchmarks.

The Bank cited an ex-depot price of about N1,275 per litre from Dangote Refinery in March, compared to an estimated import-parity price of N1,122—suggesting a roughly 12% gap.

Dangote disputes pricing

Dangote contests both the pricing logic and the broader premise.

Hassan argues the comparison oversimplifies the economics of refining in a volatile market. The refinery, he said, buys crude at international prices and often supplements domestic supply with offshore purchases, while also facing rising freight, insurance and logistics costs.

“The costs are not transferred 1-1 from feedstock,” he said. “It’s not like if fuel prices go up 30% you put the cost of PMS up 30%; you can’t be passing all that on to the consumer.”

More fundamentally, he questioned the assumption that reopening imports would create fair competition.

“Competition … must be where information is symmetric … where the standards are generalised, everyone must meet the required standard,” he was quoted as saying.

“You will not open the market for substandard products to come to Africa, to Nigeria. You will not open the market for toxic items to come to Nigeria just because of price competition.”

His argument is that weaker regulatory oversight could allow lower-quality imports to undercut domestic refiners, creating hidden costs through engine damage, environmental harm and public health risks.

Nigeria has long depended on imported refined fuel despite being a major crude producer. The Dangote refinery—one of the largest in the world—is intended to reverse that dependence and anchor local supply.

Reopening imports, the company argues, risks rebuilding reliance on external supply chains just as domestic capacity comes online.

“It’s better to get enough supply security at whatever price, than get nothing at zero price,” Hassan said.