Nigeria records lowest food inflation in over 14 years

Nigeria has recorded its first single-digit food inflation rate in more than a decade, marking a major turning point after years of relentless price pressures.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that food inflation slowed to 8.89% year-on-year in January 2026, down sharply from 29.63% in January 2025. The reading is the lowest since August 2011 and the first time food inflation has fallen below 10% since May 2015.

For 128 consecutive months – from June 2015 through December 2025 – food inflation remained in double digits. January’s figure therefore ends a stretch of more than 10 years of sustained food price increases at elevated levels.

The NBS stated:

“The Food inflation rate in January 2026 was 8.89% on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.73% points lower compared to the rate recorded in January 2025 (29.63%).”

On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined further in January, reflecting easing costs across key staples. The statistics office attributed the moderation to falling average prices of items such as water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, egusi and cassava tuber.

The broader trend shows a reversal from the inflation spike seen between 2022 and mid-2024, when food inflation surged to a peak of 40.87%. Although pressures remained elevated through early 2025, the rate eased gradually throughout the year before dropping into single digits in January 2026.

While the latest figures confirm a strong disinflation trend, the longer-term average still reflects earlier price shocks. According to the NBS:

“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending January 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 20.29%, which was 18.18% points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in January 2025 (38.47%).”

Headline inflation also edged down slightly to 15.1% in January 2026. Food remains the largest contributor to overall inflation, meaning the sharp deceleration in food prices has been central to the broader easing in consumer prices.

However, state-level data show that price pressures have not eased evenly across the country. While some states recorded very modest food inflation rates, others – including Kogi, Benue and Adamawa – continued to see significantly higher year-on-year increases.

Even so, January 2026 marks a structural shift. After more than a decade of persistent double-digit food inflation and a peak less than two years ago, Nigeria has returned to single-digit food inflation – and to its lowest level in over 14 years.