Jumia pushes toward break-even in 2026 after years of losses

Jumia Technologies is showing its strongest operational momentum in years, pairing accelerating sales growth with sharply reduced cash burn as Africa’s largest e-commerce platform positions itself for breakeven by late 2026.

The Lagos-based company, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, reported 36% year-on-year growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching $279.5 million, while revenue climbed 34% to $61.4 million, according to results released Monday.

Just as significant for investors, operating losses narrowed 39% to $10.6 million, while adjusted EBITDA loss improved 47% to $7.3 million.

For a business long criticized for burning cash faster than it could scale, the quarter marked a decisive shift. Net cash used in operating activities fell to $1.7 million, down from $26.5 million a year earlier, helped by improved working capital management. Liquidity stood at $77.8 million, with quarterly cash depletion reduced to a fraction of prior years.

“We closed 2025 with clear momentum across the platform, delivering strong GMV and revenue growth, improving customer engagement, and continued progress on our path to profitability,” Chief Executive Officer Francis Dufay said. He added that improved operating leverage and tighter cost control had meaningfully reduced cash burn, positioning the company to target adjusted EBITDA breakeven and positive cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Nigeria emerges as the growth engine

Nigeria once again proved central to Jumia’s turnaround narrative. Orders in the country rose 33% year-on-year, while GMV surged 50%, far outpacing group averages and reinforcing Nigeria’s status as Jumia’s most strategically important market.

The company’s renewed focus on physical goods — following its exit from South Africa and Tunisia in late 2024 — appears to be paying off. Excluding those markets, physical goods GMV grew 38%, driven by stronger demand, tighter category focus and improved execution.

Customer metrics also strengthened. Quarterly active customers increased 26%, while orders rose 32%, signalling improving retention and repeat usage rather than one-off promotional spikes.

The quarter also highlighted a quieter but critical shift: Jumia is growing more selectively. Corporate sales in Egypt were deliberately deprioritised, weighing slightly on headline GMV but improving margins and operational efficiency. Loss before tax narrowed 45%, reflecting tighter cost control alongside top-line growth.

On the supply side, Jumia is leaning further into cross-border sourcing. Gross items sold from international sellers jumped 82%, supported by expanded direct sourcing and the opening of a new office in Yiwu, China — a signal that supply-chain efficiency is becoming as important as demand growth.

The breakeven test ahead

For full-year 2025, Jumia posted $188.9 million in revenue, up 13%, and $818.6 million in GMV, sustaining growth despite a narrower geographic footprint.

Management says it remains on track for breakeven by the fourth quarter of 2026 — a milestone that would reshape how global investors value the company after years of scepticism.

The challenge now is execution. Sustaining Nigeria-led growth while keeping cash discipline intact will determine whether Jumia’s rebound marks a structural turnaround or another cyclical bounce. For the first time in years, however, the numbers suggest the company’s long-promised pivot from survival to sustainability may finally be taking shape.