A shopper’s recreated supermarket bill tells Nigeria’s shocking inflation story

At a time when Nigeria’s government says inflation has cooled sharply, a supermarket receipt is telling a far more unsettling story about the cost of living.

A consumer recently recreated a grocery run originally made in 2020, buying the exact same list of everyday items – food staples, pasta, cereals, hotdogs, baby food, sardines, tissue paper, yoghurt, juice, chocolate, butter and basic household supplies. In 2020, the bill came to ₦25,225. In 2026, the same basket cost ₦147,050.

That represents a 582% increase in six years.

The exercise, shared on X, quickly went viral because it distilled Nigeria’s inflation crisis into something instantly recognizable to households: the supermarket bill.

“If your salary in 2020 has not increased by x6, you are poorer,” the shopper wrote. Pluboard has reached out to the shopper with a few questions but has yet to receive a response.

The post struck a nerve as officials continue to point to a sharp fall in headline inflation — from above 34% to 15.5% as of December 2025 — following changes to how inflation is calculated. The government has revised and rebased the inflation methodology, moves it says better reflect current consumption patterns.

But for consumers, the lived reality remains stubbornly different.

The recreated basket was not luxury shopping. It consisted largely of everyday items that households buy frequently and cannot easily substitute. Many of these products have been hit by a combination of naira depreciation, higher import costs, fuel price hikes, insecurity in food-producing regions and rising logistics expenses.

For businesses, the implications are equally stark. Consumer-facing companies are grappling with shrinking volumes as shoppers downsize baskets, switch brands or drop items entirely. Salary reviews have become flashpoints, as employees benchmark pay not against official inflation figures, but against the cost of living they face daily.

The viral receipt has effectively become a shadow inflation index – crude, unscientific, but powerful. It bypasses technical debates and asks a simpler question: can Nigerians afford the same life they did six years ago?

How the Receipt Compares with Official Inflation Data

Public scepticism about Nigeria’s inflation data has grown, particularly after the government altered its methodology and rebased inflation, a process that saw headline rates fall sharply from above 30% to 15.5% by December 2025.

To assess how the grocery receipt compares with official data, it helps to do so using the right framework.

What the shopper actually measured

The shopper measured cumulative price change:

– Basket price in 2020: ₦25,225

– Basket price in 2026: ₦147,050

– Total increase: ~582% over six years

This is not annual inflation. It is compound price growth over time – essentially answering the question: how much more expensive life is today than it was in 2020.

Converting the 582% increase into an annual rate

To compare this with government inflation figures, the cumulative increase must be converted into an average annual inflation rate using compound growth.

When this is done, the result implies an annualised inflation rate of about 34–35% per year over six years.

That figure aligns closely with Nigeria’s peak inflation years, rather than with the lower headline rate reported at the end of 2025.

What official data shows

Nigeria’s official year-end inflation figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show: 2020: 13.2%; 2021: 17.0%; 2022: 18.8%; 2023: 24.7%; 2024: 33.2%, and 2025: 15.5%.

When compounded over time, these rates also translate into a large cumulative increase in prices, even if no single year matches the shopper’s implied 35% annual rate.

Why the grocery basket feels worse than govt data

The recreated supermarket basket shows prices have risen by more than 500% since 2020 – equivalent to roughly 35% annual inflation – highlighting the gap between cumulative cost-of-living pressures and today’s government’s claimed lower headline inflation rate.

Besides the change in methodology, one reason may also explain the disparities.

The government’s inflation data, measured as consumer price index or CPI, also includes items such as rent, education and telecoms, which may rise more slowly than food. The shopper’s basket is food-heavy, where inflation has been consistently higher.