Nigeria’s food crisis to last into 2026, U.S.-funded monitor warns

Nigeria will continue to face widespread food insecurity through at least mid-2026, as conflict, displacement and high living costs overwhelm the benefits of seasonal harvests, according to an outlook by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a U.S. government-funded food security monitoring organisation.

In its Nigeria Food Security Outlook for October 2025 to May 2026, FEWS NET said millions of households remain unable to meet basic food needs despite crops harvested late last year, warning that conditions are likely to deteriorate again from March as the lean season sets in.

An estimated 14 million to 15 million Nigerians will require humanitarian assistance during the period, the report said, with the most severe conditions concentrated in conflict-affected parts of the northeast, particularly Borno State. In inaccessible areas where farming and trade are heavily constrained, Emergency-level food insecurity is expected to persist.

While the October-to-December harvest brought temporary relief to some rural households, FEWS NET said overall production remains below average after years of insecurity and climate shocks. Many families are now relying heavily on markets at a time when food prices, transport costs and fuel expenses remain elevated.

“Household purchasing power remains significantly constrained,” the organisation said, noting that while inflation eased in late 2025, the cost of living remains far above pre-crisis levels. Fuel prices are still high, pushing up transport and food distribution costs nationwide.

Dominant Driver

Conflict continues to be the dominant driver of food insecurity. Violence linked to Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province in the northeast, alongside banditry and kidnappings in the northwest and north-central regions, has disrupted agricultural activity and restricted access to markets. FEWS NET reported that nearly 34,000 people were displaced across Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states between January and October 2025 alone.

Flooding during the 2025 rainy season compounded the pressure, damaging more than 760,000 hectares of farmland nationwide and eroding household food stocks. Although flooding risks are lower during the dry season, the losses are expected to weigh on food availability well into 2026.

Humanitarian assistance has helped prevent even more severe outcomes in some areas, particularly among internally displaced people living in camps. However, FEWS NET warned that funding shortfalls and access constraints have reduced coverage, raising concerns about the sustainability of aid operations beyond the end of 2025.

As Nigeria enters 2026, FEWS NET projects that crisis-level food insecurity will remain widespread across much of the north, even under its most likely scenario. Without improvements in security, agricultural recovery and humanitarian funding, the organisation said millions of Nigerians will continue to struggle to access sufficient food despite modest macroeconomic stabilisation.