As stocks rise 51%, three men control a third of Nigeria’s N99 trillion market

LAGOS — Nigeria’s stock market delivered headline-grabbing returns in 2025, but beneath the 51.2% rally lies a stark structural imbalance: just three billionaires now control nearly one-third of the entire market.

According to a Proshare Research report, Ownership Concentration and Market Influence 2025, Aliko Dangote, Abdulsamad Rabiu and Jim Ovia control listed companies worth ₦32.7 trillion — 32.9% of the Nigerian Exchange’s (NGX) total ₦99.4 trillion market capitalisation.

The concentration has intensified even as the market boomed. NGX capitalisation jumped 58% last year to ₦99.4 trillion, while the All-Share Index rose to a record 155,613 points. Proshare found that much of the rally was driven by a narrow set of founder-controlled stocks with limited trading activity.

The report shows that the 10 largest listed companies now account for 62.4% of total market value. By comparison, the top 10 stocks in the U.S. S&P 500 make up about 38–40%.

Looking further, the top 20 companies control nearly 80% of the NGX, leaving more than 140 other stocks sharing just 20% of the market.

A Liquidity Trap

Proshare warns that the dominance of billionaire founders has created a “liquidity trap.” Of the ₦99.4 trillion total market value, about ₦45.8 trillion is effectively locked up in founder or strategic holdings and unavailable for trading.

Average free float among the top 20 companies is just 8.2%. As a result, Proshare estimates that only about ₦26 trillion of the entire market is genuinely liquid.

For large investors such as pension funds, this creates what analysts call the “Hotel California” risk: investors can buy in, but exiting large positions is difficult without sharply moving prices.

“Attempting to build a ₦10 billion position in BUA Foods, which has a free float of about 5%, would significantly move the market,” the report notes. Thin trading means small orders can trigger outsized price swings that reflect share scarcity rather than fundamentals.

Sectoral Imbalance

The NGX also suffers from heavy sector concentration. Four sectors — Consumer Goods, Telecommunications, Cement and Banking — account for 63.5% of total market value.

Cement alone outweighs the entire banking sector, underscoring the dominance of industrial conglomerates. Meanwhile, growth sectors such as technology, healthcare manufacturing and renewable energy barely register, representing just 0.3%, 0.8% and 0.2% of the market respectively.

This structure distorts price discovery and amplifies volatility. With so much equity locked in strategic hands, individual stocks can swing the overall index by as much as 2–3%.

How Nigeria Compares

While the S&P 500 has also become more concentrated, U.S. market dominance is largely driven by earnings growth among major technology firms and cushioned by deep liquidity and strong institutional participation.

In Nigeria, Proshare argues, concentration is structural and ownership-led, compounded by weaker governance safeguards and limited diversification options.

The market’s strong returns still present opportunities for long-term investors willing to accept liquidity and currency risks. But without reforms to expand free float, strengthen minority shareholder protections and encourage listings in new sectors, Proshare warns that the NGX risks becoming increasingly fragile despite rising headline numbers.

To support Nigeria’s ambition of reaching a $1 trillion GDP by 2036, the report calls for regulatory incentives to reduce founder dominance and expand public ownership.

“The current model appears unsustainable for a $68.7 billion exchange aspiring to become Africa’s financial hub,” Proshare concluded.