Climate Change: Six failed rains push North Africa into deepening drought

Parts of North Africa endured an unprecedented drought in 2024 after six consecutive failed rainy seasons, according to the inaugural State of the Climate in the Arab Region report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The assessment shows conditions deteriorated sharply in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, where already-fragile water systems buckled under prolonged dryness.

While the western sub-region suffered severe drought, the report notes the opposite pattern elsewhere: extreme rainfall and flash floods caused deadly destruction in typically arid countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

The 2024 analysis is WMO’s first dedicated climate report for the Arab region, produced with the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia and the League of Arab States. It offers more tailored insights than previous Africa- and Asia-wide assessments, targeting a region that includes 15 of the world’s most water-scarce countries.

The report integrates climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and draws on contributions from regional climate centres, national meteorological agencies, UN bodies and scientific experts.

Average temperatures in the region were 1.08°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, with heatwaves lengthening significantly across North Africa and the Near East. Several countries recorded temperatures above 50°C, pushing communities, infrastructure and health systems beyond coping limits.

Extreme weather events in 2024 affected 3.8 million people and caused more than 300 deaths, mostly from heatwaves and floods. WMO warns that the true human and economic toll is likely far higher. The frequency of disasters has risen sharply—83% more events were recorded between 2000–2019 compared with 1980–1999.

The report shows the region experienced its hottest year on record, with warming accelerating in recent decades. Climate threats – heat, drought, storms and intense rainfall – now collide with rapid urbanisation, conflict, poverty and population growth, heightening vulnerability. Several governments are expanding water-security strategies, including desalination, wastewater reuse, dam construction and modern irrigation networks.

Early warning systems have become indispensable: nearly 60% of Arab states now operate multi-hazard early warning systems, above the global average but still insufficient for the scale of rising risks.

Who Says What

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said 2024 continued a worrying warming trend, with temperatures in the Arab region rising at twice the global average.

“Human health, ecosystems and economies can’t cope with extended spells of more than 50°C — it is simply too hot to handle,” she said, warning that drought is intensifying in one of the world’s most water-stressed areas.

Rola Dashti, Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, said models project temperatures could rise by up to 5°C by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, with sea-level rise, shrinking rainfall and heightened food insecurity looming.

League of Arab States Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit described the report as a “qualitative step” toward better understanding climate risks and their social and economic consequences.