UN warns global climate pledges falling far short of Paris goals

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that the world remains dangerously off track to meet its Paris Agreement targets, as new findings show climate pledges are insufficient to prevent catastrophic global warming.

In its latest Emissions Gap Report 2025, the UN agency said the current commitments made by countries – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – are inadequate to keep temperature rise below 1.5°C, the threshold scientists consider vital for avoiding irreversible climate damage.

“World leaders arriving in Belém at the end of this week for the Leaders Summit ahead of COP must scale up ambition and act with urgency — there’s no time to lose,” UNEP said in a statement.

The report comes just weeks before COP30, to be hosted in Belém, Brazil, and underscores growing concern that governments are falling behind on the promises they made under the landmark 2015 treaty.

Warming Trajectory Points to 2.3–2.5°C Rise

UNEP’s assessment warns that despite updated climate plans, the world is still on course for a 2.3°C to 2.5°C rise in global temperatures by the end of the century — a level that scientists say would unleash devastating consequences for ecosystems, food security, and human health.

The agency noted that while more countries have updated their NDCs, overall progress has stalled. “The world remains perilously close to losing the 1.5°C goal altogether,” the report said.

Climate campaigners have echoed UNEP’s warning, saying governments are not living up to their own promises.

Savio Carvalho, Head of Regions at 350.org, said the report “confirms what millions already feel in their daily lives — that governments are still failing to deliver.”

He added that even if all current pledges were fully implemented, “the world remains on track for up to 2.5°C of heating, far beyond safe limits,” noting that emissions continue to rise and high-emitting countries are missing their 2030 targets.

“The window to keep 1.5°C within reach is closing fast, but it is not yet gone,” Carvalho said. “All eyes are now on Belém. COP30 must be a turning point where leaders stop making excuses, phase out fossil fuels, and scale up renewable energy in a way that is fast, fair, and equitable.”

Fossil Fuel Phase-Out and Just Transition

Carvalho warned that “expanding fossil fuels is incompatible with a livable future,” urging world leaders to agree on a concrete plan to phase out coal, oil, and gas while supporting poorer nations to transition to renewable energy that is “affordable and accessible for all.”

Ilan Zugman, Latin America Managing Director at 350.org, emphasized that Indigenous and local communities play a critical role in protecting the planet.

“In the Amazon and beyond, Indigenous peoples and traditional communities are protecting the very ecosystems that keep our planet alive. Their leadership must be at the heart of decision-making in Belém,” Zugman said.

He added that civil society would “hold governments accountable and demand that words finally turn into real climate action.”

Pacific Islands Sound Alarm

From the Pacific, the warning was even more urgent. Jacynta Fa’amau, Pacific Campaigner for 350.org, said rising temperatures pose an existential threat to island nations already battling sea-level rise and extreme weather.

“This should ring alarm bells at the highest level,” she said. “We cannot accept being on course for 2.5°C as the new normal. Every fraction of a degree counts for the survival of the Pacific.”

Fa’amau urged world leaders to “course-correct at COP30”, phase out fossil fuels, and accelerate renewable energy adoption. “We can only adapt to so much,” she added. “We have to draw the line somewhere – and for us, that is at 1.5°C.”