Nigeria’s “Jollof Index” falls for the first time in seven years

Jollof Index, a measure of how much it costs to cook a pot of Nigeria’s famed jollof rice for a family of five, has declined for the first time in seven years, offering a faint sign of relief after years of relentless food inflation.

According to new data from SBM Intelligence, the Lagos-based consultancy which the index, National Average Jollof Index dropped 3.17% in the third quarter of 2025, easing from ₦27,528 in June to ₦26,656 by September.

The index, which aggregates the prices of key jollof ingredients such as rice, tomatoes, onions, oil, seasoning, and protein across major cities, has climbed steadily since February 2018, mirroring Nigeria’s inflationary spiral. The Jollof Index is often used as a lighthearted yet revealing gauge of living costs, has become one of Nigeria’s most relatable economic indicators.

SBM said the moderation was “non-linear and fragile,” warning that any gains could be easily reversed if insecurity, logistics bottlenecks, and exchange rate pressures persist.

“The easing momentum is partially credited to government interventions — notably, import waivers for key food items — which improved market supply, and a more stable naira, which helped curb the cost of imported inputs,” the firm said.

The decline in the Jollof Index aligns with a broader easing in inflation, as Nigeria’s headline rate fell to 18.02% in September, its lowest in more than a year, while food inflation slowed to 16.87%, aided by harvest season supplies and the naira’s relative stability.

Relief that hasn’t reached the table

Yet, analysts say the decline offers little comfort to households, where incomes remain flat and insecurity continues to distort food access. SBM estimates that over 30.6 million Nigerians were at risk of acute food insecurity by the end of the third quarter.

“Price relief remains largely theoretical for low-income consumers,” the report said, adding that most households still spend over 60% of their income on food.

The report identified insecurity as the “single largest impediment to food affordability,” citing conflicts in Benue, Niger, and Plateau that disrupt cultivation and raise costs. Flooding in Kwara and Niger States further destroyed farmlands and household food stocks, amplifying scarcity and local price surges.

While government measures — such as food import waivers and fiscal support for farmers — have helped temper prices, SBM warned that sustained progress depends on restoring security and protecting supply chains from informal levies and road extortion.

“Field reports confirm that the largest cost obstacles are not official taxation, but informal and security-related logistics burdens,” the firm said.