Nigeria’s economy is now valued at ₦372.8 trillion in nominal terms for 2024 following a long-awaited rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The rebasing, which shifts the GDP base year from 2010 to 2019, resulted in a 41.7% upward revision of nominal GDP estimates. In dollar terms, the new figures place Nigeria’s GDP at roughly $243.7 billion, still behind South Africa’s economy. Before the rebasing, Nigeria’s 2024 GDP was $181 billion.
Despite the increase in value, the latest data show economic growth is still underwhelming. Real GDP grew 3.13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 2.27% in the same quarter of 2024, but well below analysts’ expectations of 4.9%, according to a Reuters poll.
“The rebasing reflects structural shifts in the economy, especially the growing prominence of services, tech, and e-commerce,” said Statistician-General Adeyemi Adeniran at a press briefing. He added that the services sector grew 4.33% in Q1 and contributed 57.15% of total GDP.
Oil production averaged 1.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter, slightly higher than the same period last year. Yet with oil’s reduced weight in the new GDP calculations, services, creative industries, ports, shipping, and fintech are now more prominent growth drivers.
Painful reforms
While rebasing exercises are routine and help modernize statistical systems, analysts say the revision masks deeper structural issues. Growth in real terms remains modest despite two years of painful reforms under President Bola Tinubu, including fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluations.
The NBS reported Nigeria’s rebased real GDP in 2020 at -6.96%, reflecting the pandemic’s impact, before rebounding to 0.95% in 2021 and growing to 3.38% in 2024.
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