Can Dangote really crash cooking gas prices? Here’s what his rate might be

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, says he is ready to crash the price of cooking gas in Nigeria – even if it means bypassing distributors and selling directly to consumers.

“We currently do about 22,000 tonnes of LPG per day,” Dangote said during a recent tour of his refinery. “Cooking gas is expensive, but we’re trying to bring down the price.”

Then, the bomb: “If the distributors are not willing to do so, we’ll go directly and sell to consumers.”

Across Nigeria, the price of cooking gas ranges from ₦1,000 to ₦1,300 per kilogram, making it unaffordable for many households. Dangote says his goal is affordability: “People should not be cooking with firewood anymore.”

But his plan is already drawing resistance from industry players, who fear market disruption. Godwin Okoduwa, former chair of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce LPG group, described the plan as “monopolistic.” He told Punch: “The work has been done, he should respect the market and let us grow. It shouldn’t be a zero-sum strategy.”

Bassey Essien, CEO of the Nigerian Association of LPG Marketers, was more skeptical: “It’s unrealistic. Has the refinery sold petrol directly to us at cheap rates?”

Both experts urged Dangote to collaborate, not dominate, Nigeria’s growing LPG sector.

What depot prices and market math show

To assess a potential Dangote pricing, Pluboard examined depot rates for 20 metric tonnes (MT) – the bulk quantity that marketers buy – and used that to estimate what consumers might pay.

Truly, as of July 17, 2025, the cheapest depot price came from Dangote Refinery at ₦16.3 million per 20MT, according to LPG in Nigeria. That translates to: ₦815,000 per MT and ₦815 per kilogramme.

That is ₦100 – ₦500 cheaper per kg than several competitors, even before distribution and logistics are added.

What a 12.5kg cylinder might cost at Dangote rate

Base Cost:

₦815 × 12.5kg = ₦10,187.50

Add-On Costs:

Transport & logistics (₦500–₦800)

Retailer/distributor margin ₦500–₦1,000

Cylinder handling/plant fees (₦200–₦500)

Final Estimated Retail Price:

₦11,400–₦12,500

In reality, many consumers are still paying ₦13,800 and more, especially in inland or remote locations.

Will the price really crash?

If Dangote follows through on his threat to sell directly to end users, final prices could fall to ₦10,200–₦11,000 per 12.5kg cylinder. That will be a reasonable drop from current levels, though still far from the ₦4,000–₦5,000 range just three years ago.

That promise depends on logistics, regulation, and how much market resistance he faces. If competitors adjust their pricing in response, consumers stand to benefit.

But if Dangote goes through middlemen, final prices for per 12.5kg cylinder could be between ₦11,400 and ₦12,500. Not much of a relief, uh?