Nigerians’ trust in their president drops to lowest in two decades

Public trust in the presidencies of over a dozen African nations, including Nigeria’s, has fallen to its lowest level in two decades, data from Afrobarometer shows.

The independent research network’s survey reveals that only about half of citizens across the surveyed 16 countries express trust in their presidents – a decline from 63 percent in 2005/2006 to 52 percent in 2021/2023.

In Nigeria, this decline aligns with years of economic stress, policy upheavals, and deteriorating living conditions. The lowest trust levels coincided with the second term of former President Muhammadu Buhari and the early days of Bola Tinubu’s administration – periods marked by surging inflation, currency devaluation, fuel subsidy removal, and mounting poverty.

Alongside the presidency, trust in the Nigerian police also declined sharply—from 57 percent to 45 percent over the same period—while confidence in the army saw a slight rise, from 65 to 67 percent.

The World Bank, which highlighted Afrobarometer’s findings in its latest Africa’s Pulse report, noted that waning public confidence stems from institutions’ struggles to meet citizens’ expectations, especially on security and service delivery.

“The inability of institutions to respond to social expectations threatens to turn civic engagement into distrust, radicalization, and violence,” the Bank warned.

Although democratic preferences remain strong among African citizens, frustration with perceived government inaction has contributed to instability in several nations. The Bank noted that this frustration has, in some countries, led to increased public tolerance – or even support – for military interventions.

The data comes at a time when Nigeria is facing deepening economic hardship. Inflation, currency depreciation, and policy reforms – such as the removal of fuel subsidies – have placed pressure on households.

Across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, the 2000s saw strong economic growth and optimism. But since 2015, multiple shocks — including a fall in oil prices, COVID-19, mounting debt, conflict and often controversial economic policies — have reversed those gains.

Nigeria, heavily reliant on oil revenues and still grappling with insecurity, has seen growth without shared prosperity. Despite being Africa’s largest economy, more than 60 percent of its population lives in multidimensional poverty, according to national estimates.

The World Bank warns that widespread dissatisfaction and the failure of governments to meet expectations are eroding the social contract.