Claim traced to 2021 news article

Africa Check has asked Fashola for the source of his claim and will update this report with his response.

Following his instructions in his speech, we searched the phrase “Detty December” and clicked on the Wikipedia entry he referred to. It says: “The World Bank reports that remittances for the Nigerian diaspora during this period [Detty December] account for 4% of Nigeria’s GDP.”

However, the entry, in turn, cited a 2021 article by the Guardian, which reported that according to the World Bank, diaspora remittances to Nigeria amounted to 4% of Nigeria’s GDP in 2020.

Wikipedia is a free and open-source encyclopaedia maintained by volunteers on the internet. For this reason, it is not considered a reliable source. But what do more accurate sources tell us about remittances for December 2024?

Data for December 2024 not yet available

Gross domestic product is the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific period. It is a broad measure of a country’s overall economic activity.

Data on Nigeria’s 2024 GDP is not yet available. And the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) only has remittance data from January to October 2024. The bank’s governor announced that over those 10 months, US$4.22 billion in remittances were received. This was nearly double the $2.62 billion received during the same period in 2023, he said.

In 2023, the World Bank estimated Nigeria’s GDP at $363.85 billion.

‘Fashola’s statement warrants scrutiny’

Basil Abia is an economist and the co-founder of Veviv Africa, a data insights company. He told Africa Check that Fashola’s statement warranted scrutiny.

“If we consider the 2023 GDP of $362.81 billion, 4% would amount to approximately $14.5 billion. Given that total remittances for the first 10 months of 2024 were reported at $4.22 billion, it is improbable that December alone accounted for $14.5 billion. This discrepancy suggests that the reported figure may be an overestimation or possibly a misinterpretation,” Abia said.

(Note: Abia uses a 2023 GDP figure of $362.81 billion, which is slightly less than the World Bank’s.)

The above graph shows that over the past four years, total remittances into Nigeria per year have amounted to between 4% and 5% of the country’s GDP.

Important to ‘consider broader economic context’

Ijaya Gafar, a professor of development economics at the University of Ilorin in Nigeria, told Africa Check that any figure that did not translate to the improvement of Nigerians was unhelpful.

“We do not have a structure that addresses diaspora remittances. How are the remittances kept or used? How do we measure the impact of remittances? Where are the schools, hospitals, and other structures built with the remittances?

“The government has always brought figures to make us think they are working,” said Gafar.

Benedict Akanegbu, a professor of economics at Nile University of Nigeria, told Africa Check that an increase in diaspora remittances is good for the nation.

“Suppose there is a significant increase in diaspora remittances relative to Nigeria’s overall GDP; more money will be in circulation, resulting in more jobs and increased income for the people. That translates to economic growth. In addition, ways to keep it increasing should be encouraged too.”

He acknowledged, however, that remittances from the diaspora in November and December would not have climbed so much.

“I doubt that the remittances for November and December would equal $14.5 billion if the CBN’s reported number for January to October was $4.22 billion. Remittances for these two months could not have totalled $14.5 billion, although they are frequently significant.”

Abia said that while both the tourism sector and diaspora remittances played vital roles in Nigeria’s economy, it was essential to “critically assess reported figures and consider the broader economic context when evaluating their impact”.

Conclusion: Ex-governor Fashola’s diaspora claim is unsupported

Former Lagos governor Babatunde Fashola recently claimed that December 2024 remittances from Nigeria’s diaspora were equivalent to 4% of the country’s GDP. He named Wikipedia as his source, which in turn relied on a news article published in 2021.

Available data shows that total remittances into Nigeria per year have amounted to between 4% and 5% of GDP. While complete data for remittances and GDP in 2024 is not yet available, experts said it was, therefore, unlikely that Fashola’s figure for December was correct.