President Bola Tinubu delivered his second Independence Day speech to the nation on Tuesday as Nigerians marked the country’s 64th anniversary at a time of unprecedented economic hardship.
For the most part, the speech offered little relief to citizens struggling daily to buy food, drugs, fuel, electricity and more. The president stayed on the same claims that many regard as lacking immediate benefits to the population: clearing forex backlog, reducing debt servicing ratio and attracting foreign direct investment.
It was silent on the progress of the government’s policy to waive import duty on food as a temporary measure to lower prices. It was silent on how the government plans, if it does even consider, to make fuel and electricity — the two elements driving prices across the country — more affordable.
For transportation, President Tinubu repeated the government’s line of readying a fleet of CNG-run vehicles, a plan that has yet to find tangible footing across the country.
We reviewed the speeches delivered by Mr Tinubu on October 1, 2023, and October 1, 2024, looking for evidence of progress on promises made by the government in the last over one year.
We have the results below. Note that the comments published here do not run continuously as published here. They are derived from different parts of the president’s speeches on the condition they refer to the subject considered.
Cost of living crisis
As his first speech on a new problem, the president said more on the hardship last year, making more promises. With the administration clearly failing to keep to those promises or act speedily to provide relief to suffering citizens, the president had fewer things to say this time.
2023
“At my inauguration, I made important promises about how I would govern this great nation. Among those promises, were pledges to reshape and modernize our economy and to secure the lives, liberty and property of the people.
I said that bold reforms were necessary to place our nation on the path of prosperity and growth. On that occasion, I announced the end of the fuel subsidy.
I am attuned to the hardships that have come. I have a heart that feels and eyes that see. I wish to explain to you why we must endure this trying moment. Those who sought to perpetuate the fuel subsidy and broken foreign exchange policies are people who would build their family mansion in the middle of a swamp. I am different. I am not a man to erect our national home on a foundation of mud. To endure, our home must be constructed on safe and pleasant ground.
Reform may be painful, but it is what greatness and the future require. We now carry the costs of reaching a future Nigeria where the abundance and fruits of the nation are fairly shared among all, not hoarded by a select and greedy few. A Nigeria where hunger, poverty and hardship are pushed into the shadows of an ever fading past.
There is no joy in seeing the people of this nation shoulder burdens that should have been shed years ago. I wish today’s difficulties did not exist. But we must endure if we are to reach the good side of our future.
My government is doing all that it can to ease the load. I will now outline the path we are taking to relieve the stress on our families and households.
Based on our talks with labour, business and other stakeholders, we are introducing a provisional wage increment to enhance the federal minimum wage without causing undue inflation. For the next six months, the average low-grade worker shall receive an additional Twenty-Five Thousand naira per month.
To ensure better grassroots development, we set up an Infrastructure Support Fund for states to invest in critical areas. States have already received funds to provide relief packages against the impact of rising food and other prices.
Commencing this month, the social safety net is being extended through the expansion of cash transfer programs to an additional 15 million vulnerable households.”
2024
“Fellow Nigerians, as I address you today, I am deeply aware of the struggles many of you face in these challenging times. Our administration knows that many of you struggle with rising living costs and the search for meaningful employment. I want to assure you that your voices are heard.
As your President, I assure you that we are committed to finding sustainable solutions to alleviate the suffering of our citizens. Once again, I plead for your patience as the reforms we are implementing show positive signs, and we are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel.
The central concern of our people today is the high cost of living, especially food costs. This concern is shared by many around the globe as prices and the cost of living continue to rise worldwide.
My fellow Nigerians, be assured that we are implementing many measures to reduce the cost of living here at home.” !!!
Unemployment
For jobs, the only difference between the pledge of last year and this year is what the government calls 3 million Technical Talents programme (3MTT) of the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, which does not directly count as job creation. Other than that, the president only made promises for both years.
2023
“To boost employment and urban incomes, we are providing investment funding for enterprises with great potential. Similarly, we are increasing investment in micro, small and medium-sized enterprises.”
2024
“Our government is implementing several other youth-centric programmes to give our young people an advantage in the rapidly changing world. We are implementing, amongst others, the 3 million Technical Talents programme (3MTT) of the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, aimed at building Nigeria’s technical talent backbone.
In addition, later this month, we shall launch The Renewed Hope Labour Employment and Empowerment Programme (LEEP). It is conceived as a comprehensive suite of interventions at job creation by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment that is aimed at facilitating the creation of 2.5 million jobs, directly and indirectly, on an annual incremental basis whilst simultaneously ensuring the welfare and safety of workers across the country.”
Transportation
The administration has made it a central theme for addressing the high cost of transportation following its removal of petrol subsidy the use of vehicles run by Compressed Natural Gas. Mass transits vehicles are still not rolled out yet. Some private vehicles have reported conversion to cheaper CNG, but the cost of doing so has kept the service away from the reach of most citizens. Compare the president’s speeches to have a sense of whether there is reasonable progress.
2023
“Making the economy more robust by lowering transport costs will be key. In this regard, we have opened a new chapter in public transportation through the deployment of cheaper, safer Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses across the nation. These buses will operate at a fraction of current fuel prices, positively affecting transport fares.
New CNG conversions kits will start coming in very soon as all hands are on deck to fast track the usually lengthy procurement process. We are also setting up training facilities and workshops across the nation to train and provide new opportunities for transport operators and entrepreneurs. This is a groundbreaking moment where, as a nation, we embrace more efficient means to power our economy. In making this change, we also make history.”
2024
“Our energy transition programme is on course. We are expanding the adoption of the Presidential Initiative on Compressed Natural Gas for mass transit with private sector players. The Federal Government is ready to assist the thirty-six States and FCT in acquiring CNG buses for cheaper public transportation.”
Economic Policy
On the economy, the president had more to say this time than last year. What the president counts as economic successes barely reflect on any major cost indicators. Higher foreign investments have not translated to more jobs (the latest NBS data showed unemployed rose in the first quarter); reduction of debt ratio hasn’t translated to new and great infrastructural projects.
2023
“We have embarked on several public sector reforms to stabilize the economy, direct fiscal and monetary policy to fight inflation, encourage production, ensure the security of lives and property and lend more support to the poor and the vulnerable.
I pledged a thorough housecleaning of the den of malfeasance the CBN had become. That housecleaning is well underway. A new leadership for the Central Bank has been constituted. Also, my special investigator will soon present his findings on past lapses and how to prevent similar reoccurrences. Henceforth, monetary policy shall be for the benefit of all and not the exclusive province of the powerful and wealthy.
Wise tax policy is essential to economic fairness and development. I have inaugurated a Committee on Tax Reforms to improve the efficiency of tax administration in the country and address fiscal policies that are unfair or hinder the business environment and slow our growth.”
2024
“My administration took over the leadership of our country 16 months ago at a critical juncture. The economy faced many headwinds, and our physical security was highly impaired. We found ourselves at a dizzying crossroads, where we must choose between two paths: reform for progress and prosperity or carry on business-as-usual and collapse. We decided to reform our political economy and defence architecture.
The economy is undergoing the necessary reforms and retooling to serve us better and more sustainably. If we do not correct the fiscal misalignments that led to the current economic downturn, our country will face an uncertain future and the peril of unimaginable consequences.
Thanks to the reforms, our country attracted foreign direct investments worth more than $30 billion in the last year.
The more disciplined approach adopted by the Central Bank to monetary policy management has ensured stability and predictability in our foreign exchange market. We inherited a reserve of over $33 billion 16 months ago. Since then, we have paid back the inherited forex backlog of $7 billion. We have cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion. We have reduced the debt service ratio from 97 per cent to 68 per cent. Despite all these, we have managed to keep our foreign reserve at $37 billion. We continue to meet all our obligations and pay our bills.
We are moving ahead with our fiscal policy reforms. To stimulate our productive capacity and create more jobs and prosperity, the Federal Executive Council approved the Economic Stabilisation Bills, which will now be transmitted to the National Assembly. These transformative bills will make our business environment more friendly, stimulate investment and reduce the tax burden on businesses and workers once they are passed into law.
I commend the Governors particularly, in Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Kwara, Nasarawa, and the Southwest Governors that have embraced our agricultural production programme. I urge other states to join the Federal Government in investing in mechanised farming. We are playing our part by supplying fertilizer and making tractors and other farm equipment available. Last week, the Federal Executive Council approved establishing a local assembly plant for 2000 John Deere tractors, combine harvesters, disc riders, bottom ploughs and other farm equipment. The plant has a completion time of six months.”
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