With tomato shortage and deadly floods, climate change alerts Nigeria

As torrents of water surged through Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, Babakura Mustapha’s phone rang with alarming news—a nearby community had been completely submerged. Concerned for his relatives living there, he immediately set out for the area.

But just as he was making his way, another call came through. “While on my way there, I was called back that my own area had been flooded too,” Mustapha, a middle-aged man, recounted in a Channels TV broadcast.

Like Mustapha, thousands of Maiduguri residents were thrown into disarray in early September, as the city faced its worst flooding in three decades, displacing hundreds of thousands. For them, climate change is no longer a distant threat—it’s a harsh and devastating reality.

Nigeria, Africa’s fourth largest economy, has been grappling with the growing impacts of climate change for years, but the events of 2024 have shown the crisis is increasingly becoming difficult to ignore. From devastating floods to droughts, the country is facing environmental problems that threaten lives, livelihoods, and food security.

As weather patterns shift, Nigeria’s agricultural sector, which employs millions, is feeling the strain. This year, crop failures in the northern region led to a tomato shortage, causing prices to surge by over 550%. A basket of tomatoes soared from N20,000 to N150,000, exacerbating the country’s cost-of-living crisis, with food inflation reaching 40.5% in August — the highest in 28 years.

Traders cited seasonal fluctuations, while the government pointed to crop infestation. The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, said tomato farms were affected by “tomato ebola.” “This has drastically reduced the availability of tomatoes and contributed to rising costs,” he said.

Pluboard found that while other factors might have played a role, a key reason for the scarcity was an unusual rise in temperature, which disrupted the plant’s growth cycles, leading to crop failures.

“The issue of climate change has significantly impacted crop production due to excessive temperatures, resulting in poor growth for most crops,” said Sani Danladi, the national secretary of the Tomato Growers Association of Nigeria.

“If you check well, you will recall that extreme heat has persisted since February, starting from the beginning of the season. Consequently, many crops have died off, leading to the current scarcity,” he said.

Faced with the shortage, some traders said they were sourcing tomato from Cameroon, which had supplies and at better rates. “This method is more affordable for customers, but it requires reliable contacts in Cameroon to help with purchasing and crossing the border,” Adamu Abdullahi, a trader in Port Harcourt, told Pluboard.

As the planet continues to warm, these adverse effects on agriculture are expected to become more frequent and severe, posing a long-term threat to food security, experts say. They warn that increasingly low yield portend trouble for a nation already faced with real risks of food insecurity.

“An already dire hunger situation in the country is gradually going from bad to worse as violence, insecurity and rising prices combine to leave over 15 million children hungry in Nigeria,” Duncan Harvey, Save the Children’s Country Director for Nigeria, said.

In April, the organization said around one in six – or 15.6 million – children in faced hunger in the lead up to the lean season starting in June. The number was 25% higher than the same period in 2023.

This year, flood has so far killed some 214 people in 15 states and displaced 208,655 others in 22 states as of August, according to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA).

NEMA said floods caused by heavy rains had destroyed more than 693 hectares of farmlands in the northern part of the country.

“We are just entering into the peak of the season, particularly in the northern part of the country and the situation is very dire,” NEMA spokesperson Manzo Ezekiel told Reuters.

Agriculture Minister Kyari said the crisis would affect farm harvests as well as farmers’ social and economic wellbeing. “As we witness the devastation caused by the recent flooding in our agricultural heartlands, my thoughts turn to the hardworking farmers whose livelihoods have been swept away by the unforgiving forces of nature,” he said.

“The impact of this will be felt on the anticipated harvest this year, though we are hopeful it will have minimal effect on national food security.”

“First of its Kind”

Maiduguri, the worst-hit city in Nigeria this year so far, experienced severe flooding after a drought, submerging homes and displacing many, including children.

Residents said the floods started after torrential rains caused the Alau Dam to burst late in the night as residents were asleep.

Such disasters are becoming more common in Nigeria. Flood killed 662 people in 2022 and 45 in 2023, according the NEMA. Experts say that despite years of warnings from scientists and international organizations, Nigeria’s response to climate change has been largely reactionary.

Vincent Ojeh, a climate scientist at the Taraba State University, said what happened in Borno was the first of its kind. “The amount of rain that fell for a few minutes or few hours should have been a rain that should fall … for weeks,” he told Inside Climate News.

“I still believe that there are people around thinking that climate change is an act of God. Is it God that brings sunshine, is it God that brings rainfall. The climate deniers should be able to know by now that we are sitting on the keg of gunpowder.”

Experts argue that while the country is good at attending annual international climate summits – Nigeria had the third largest delegation, joined with China, to COP-28 in UAE in 2023 – it has yet to implement a robust national strategy to combat climate change.

“Nigeria is doing a lot on paper that is not translating to positive impact of communities being impacted by climate change,” said Joseph Ibrahim, programme manager at Global Initiative for Food Security and Ecosystem Preservation.

Nigeria’s National Action Plan on Climate Change outlines ambitious goals, including achieving net-zero emissions by 2060 and increasing Nigeria’s reliance on renewable energy. Yet, implementation remains slow. In the 2024 budget, only N599 billion ($361 million) to environmental sustainability projects, according to GIFSEP — barely enough to scratch the surface of what the country needs.

Nigeria would need to invest around $17.7 billion annually to address climate impacts effectively. However, access to international climate financing has been sluggish. The World Bank announced last week it approved $1.57 billion in new lending to Nigeria via three projects aimed at strengthening health for women and children, and improving dam safety to improve resilience to climate change.

Beyond Buzzwords

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), part of Nigeria’s commitments under the Paris Agreement, aim to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030. But many experts believe that the country is still far from achieving this target.

“So our climate action is still at talking stage,” Mr Ibrahim said.

Agriculture Minister Kyari said the federal government aims to boost investment in technologies to mitigate climate change impacts on agriculture. He said efforts will focus on enhancing the 2024/2025 dry season farming to counteract adverse weather effects, with collaboration between his ministry and the Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation to expand cultivated areas during this season.

“We have constituted a committee already between the staff of the two ministries and key players are working on ways to achieve the objectives of increasing food production through dry season farming,” he added.

The government has repeatedly assured the of its commitment to fighting climate change, but without adequate funding, policy enforcement, and infrastructure development, very little has been achieved.

“Poor governance and stakeholder engagement remain the greatest challenges to climate resilience in Nigeria,” Amara Nwankpa, director, public policy initiative at the Abuja-based Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Foundation, said in a commentary.

“Although awareness and understanding of the impacts of climate change are growing among key stakeholders, the government has been unable to galvanize effective collective action for mitigation and resilience.”

One of the clearest indicators of a country’s seriousness about climate change is its response to disasters. In recent years, Nigeria’s response has often been reactionary rather than proactive. After the 2022 floods, the government promised to build better drainage systems and boost early warning systems.

However, in 2024, as heavy rains returned, communities reported the same inadequate infrastructure and unpreparedness. The Alau Dam gave way in part because the government failed to repair the dam despite warnings.

There is also the corruption dimension, with money voted for projects ending up in private pockets. Mr Ojeh said the lack of investment in flood control infrastructure adds another layer of climate vulnerability for the country.

“The issue of climate change is now weakening the already weak urban designs, already weak infrastructures. So, the blocks of those buildings are already weak. The bridges are already caving in, so bringing or throwing up more problems in the future if care is not taken,” he said.

To change course the government must show real willingness to implement its policies, ensure increased investment in climate adaptation projects, renewable energy, and infrastructure improvements.

Experts also recommend community-based approaches that focus on empowering local governments to develop specific, regional climate solutions that could enhance Nigeria’s overall resilience.

“Developing and announcing these policies represent a good start, but the government needs to translate its published objectives into diligent action,” Nwankpa said.

“The Nigerian Federal Government must deepen consensus around its Nationally Determined Commitments and galvanize implementation programs that are inclusive of women, youth, and marginalized communities. These groups have significant roles to play in decreasing population pressure, reducing energy poverty, and improving productivity of food value chains.”