Nigeria’s former statistician-general, Yemi Kale, has faulted the new methodology adopted by the National Bureau of Statistics in computing Nigeria’s unemployment data.
Mr Kale said he rejected the approach canvassed by the World Bank and the International Labour Organization for 10 years and warned the new figures could mislead policymakers.
A spokesperson for the agency initially rejected Mr Kale’s arguments, but the bureau says the official did not speak for it, amid growing criticisms over the numbers published last week by the NBS.
Enhanced methodology
The NBS on Thursday pegged Nigeria’s unemployment rate at 4.1% in the first quarter of 2023 and 5.3% in the previous quarter – down from 33.3% in 2020.
The agency said the huge decline was due to a new methodology it says aligns with global best practices. In the so-called “enhanced methodology”, people are classified as employed if they work for just one hour for profit or pay, compared to required 20 hours in the old template.
On Sunday, Mr Kale, who is now chief economist at KPMG Nigeria, criticized the approach as missing the local context.
“You can’t plan for gainful employment & measure something else because of so called international standards when various countries have different priorities. Yes do your international comparison but you must more importantly also provide for local demands/policies,” he tweeted.
He added: “When we understand that the primary purpose of data is not politics or ego boosting/chest thumping but evidence based policy & to understand problems and proffer solutions and then monitor success of those policies we will get it. But apparently we are not ready.
“An intellectually thinking mindset will make u simply look at what’s the best option/measurement/solution to any issue based on what u truly believe is best. Political thinking will make one push for international standards today & against it tomorrow depending on the agenda.”
Makes no sense
In an interview on Arise Television’s Global Business Report on Monday, Mr Kale said he refused to change Nigeria’s unemployment methodology because “one-hour work” did not make sense because the income generated within that time frame was not necessarily liveable.
“If the policy and data are to match, policymakers need to come out to say that all they are promising Nigerians is one hour of employment, then the methodology works. But if the methodology is focused on one hour and policymakers are trying to look for full-time employment, the data won’t help them,” he said, according to The Cable.
“It is only there for textbooks, researchers, and international comparison, and there is nothing wrong with that.
“The most important use of data is to provide information for policymakers, not for international comparisons. You have to ensure that your policymakers can use your data.
“This is why I resisted for 10 years because it did not make any sense in terms of providing the information that our policymakers need.
“So, the 20 hours was set because the committee that was set up, which included the ILO, university professors, UNDP, population commission, and CBN, presented their findings and they decided that one hour did not make sense because the income you will generate on an average from one hour’s work was not going to work.
“The 20 hours was decided on because it was agreed that if you work for that duration, you might be able to generate enough income that might sort of equate to what working one hour in the US is, then you have a bit more comparison.”
NBS disowns comments
In a response to Mr Kale’s views, Punch quoted Wakili Ibrahim, NBS head of communications and public relations, as saying that times have changed and that some Nigerians earn from working for just one hour.
“The new methodology is internationally accepted. All our neighbouring countries in Africa are using the new methodology of one hour,” he was quoted as saying.
“The world is changing. In high-tech countries, if you work for one hour, you can earn what somebody in a bank cannot earn in one year because of IT.
“Look at lecturers, a lecturer can go lecture for one or two hours, and they will pay him about N200,000 or N300,000 in one or two hours. So, what is the basis for ignoring those ones?
“It is the dynamic world that informed ILO and NBS to adopt this method to capture these people that spend one hour.”
The NBS has issued a statement saying Mr Ibrahim’s views did not represent his position.
“We wish to state categorically that the reaction of that individual to the interview granted by the former Statistician-General are his personal views and do not represent that of the bureau,” it said.
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