Russia ends Ukraine grain deal: These 15 African countries most affected

Russia on Monday terminated the Black Sea grain deal that allowed the export of Ukrainian grains to Africa and the rest of the world.

Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the agreement had “essentially stopped” and Russia would no longer cooperate with the deal.

“The Black Sea agreements ceased to be valid today. As the President of the Russian Federation said earlier, the deadline is July 17. Unfortunately, the part relating to Russia in this Black Sea agreement has not been implemented so far. Therefore, its effect is terminated,” Peskov said.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a diplomatic effort brokered between Russia and Ukraine by the United Nations and Turkey, has allowed 32.9 million metric tonnes of food to be exported from war-torn Ukraine since August 2022.

As part of the deal, Moscow agreed not to attack Kyiv’s grain ships, in order to prevent food shortages in developing nations that relied on Ukrainian exports and received about half of the shipment.

– Reason

Russia blamed the termination of the agreement on Ukraine failing to fulfill its obligations under the deal and sanctions on Russia’s own exports.

It said the deal will remain suspended till their conditions are met.

Peskov told journalists that the conditions include the lifting of sanctions imposed against its agricultural bank and resuming exports of Russian grain and fertilizer.

“When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal,” he said.

– How it affects Africa

A blockade will have implications for African nations that rely heavily on grain shipments from Ukraine. It will also affect the international prices of wheat and other grains.

On Monday, wheat, corn and soybean prices all rose on the news.

Chicago wheat futures, a measure for global prices, jumped 3% on Monday, hitting a high of 689.25 cents per bushel, its highest level since June 28 when the contract traded as high as 706.25 cents.

Corn futures rose to a high of 526.5 cents per bushel, while soybean futures surged to a high of 1,388.75 cents per bushel.

In 2021, Nigeria depended on Russia, Ukraine and other Black Sea countries for up to 50% of its imported grains. It imported up to $491.9 million worth of wheat and $200,000 worth of oat from Ukraine alone in 2021.

The no-deal may drive Nigeria’s food inflation rate higher as millers struggle with supply chain breaches and poor Nigerians brace for possible price hikes on staples like bread and other flour-based products.

But Russia’s decision has implications particularly in 15 African nations that depend on Ukraine for much of their wheat imports, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. Eritrea is fully dependent on them.

These are the 15 countries and the percentage of their grain imports that come from Ukraine: Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, Mauritania, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Madagascar, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Cameroon, Sudan and Senegal.